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Tariff changes are creating new layers of complexity for merchant acquirers and lenders. As trade policies shift, some industries face increased costs, disrupted supply chains, and pricing volatility. This is introducing a new and real financial risk across merchant portfolios.
Monitoring businesses for early signs of tariff impact is going to be a critical component of risk strategy for the remainder of this year. A proactive approach can help you identify issues earlier, mitigate potential losses, and support your merchants through periods of disruption.
This guide provides practical tips to help risk managers navigate tariff uncertainty—highlighting key signals to watch in order to rapidly detect and respond to potential issues.
1. Identify High-Risk Industries and Merchant Categories
Certain sectors face higher tariff exposure. Prioritizing high frequency monitoring in the industries most vulnerable to disruption is the best way to focus your resources.
We’ve mapped 300+ MCC codes and worked with industry partners to identify the exposure to tariffs. LINK HERE.
Keep an eye on:
Electronics & Computers (MCC 5045, NAICS 423690)
Automotive Parts (MCC 5533, NAICS 441310)
Apparel & Textiles (MCC 5699, NAICS 448110)
Metal Products (MCC 5051, NAICS 332999)
Miscellaneous Retail (MCC 5999, NAICS 424990)
2. Monitor Pricing and Product Availability Signals
Price hikes and stock issues are often early signs of supply chain stress or margin pressure caused by tariffs. Look for early indicators of tariff-related financial stress through:
Sudden or frequent price increases.
Changes in product availability, including increased stock-outs or limited inventory.
Shifts in sourcing origins (e.g., moving production from China to alternative locations).
3. Track Supply Chain and Operational Changes
Supply chain disruptions are among the earliest indicators of tariff impacts, and can precede broader financial or operational stress. Monitor:
Announcements of shipping delays or logistical issues.
Changes in sourcing vendors or vendor relationships.
Communications about expected supply shortages or disruptions.
4. Pay Attention to Company Policy Updates
Policy adjustments can signal underlying financial pressure and attempts to manage cash flow. Watch closely for:
Changes in shipping, return, or refund policies indicating tighter financial conditions.
Updates to business terms or customer agreements.
5. Analyze Financial and Transactional Signals
Transactional changes can highlight merchant liquidity issues or operational stress. Look for:
Merchants switching or reducing their number of payment providers.
Modifications to checkout processes reflecting potential financial distress.
6. Use Merchant Risk Scores for Ongoing Surveillance
Consistently low or declining scores can indicate emerging or worsening risk. To mitigate the most severe impacts, you should:
Regularly review merchant risk scores to identify merchants under sustained financial pressure.
Use score trends to trigger early interventions or reassessment of exposure.
7. Integrate Merchant Data with Tariff Intelligence
Enriching internal merchant data with external tariff updates can help you build more comprehensive risk management. To identify specific tariff exposures accurately, we recommend:
Matching merchant insights with external tariff data, such as Harmonized System (HS) codes or commodity duties.
Proactive Risk Management, Powered by TrueBiz
Staying ahead of tariff-driven risk requires a faster, more comprehensive view of what’s changing at the industry, business, and transactional level. That’s where TrueBiz can help.
TrueBiz empowers merchant acquirers and lenders with real-time insights into critical risk indicators. With just a website URL, we can get alerting set up the same day.
Let’s talk about how we can unlock quick detection, informed decisions, and effective mitigation of tariff-related risks across your portfolios.